Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Final Four

Rudy G. and John Edwards are dropping out. Huckabee is hanging on, probably to help McCain and see if he can get the V.P. nod, but really, we are down to the final four. Mitt may be headed for the knock out blow on Tuesday. 22 states coming up on February 5. and McCain has tremendous momentum coming out of South Carolina and Florida. With Rudy G out, there are a lot of votes up for grabs, but if he endorses McCain, it's probably good night nurse for Romeny. The second Governor of that name in only 40 years to be judged unfit to be President.

Mitt has got to be frustrated. In head on head fights with McCain, I believe that he could win. The muddled field has worked against him. I believe that the only possible race that the Republicans have a chance of winning is Mitt vs. Hillary. I don't think they'd win it, but they'd have a chance. But if the polls are to be believed, things look awfully good for the Senator from Arizona.

How about the Dems ? In a zen moment last night, Hillary flew into Florida to claim victory in a primary she never campaigned in and can get no delegates from. The Democratic National committee says that they won't seat Florida's delegates this year because they scheduled their primary too early in the year. This should set up an old fashioned delegate war at the convention, with a bunch of Clintonites trying to get the Convention to seat the Florida renegades. We used to have fights like this all the time at conventions, it will be like stepping back in time to 1952.

Things look decent enough for Hillary, but she can't possibly predict what the Edward's surrender will do to her. If, as I suspect, the Edwards vote is a pretty hard anti-Clinton vote, it is going to hurt. If, as turned out to be the case in South Carolina, it is a bunch of old White men, it will help her. The most likely scenario is that it will help her in southern states like Georgia and Alabama, and hurt her everywhere else. But no one really knows, and that's why Tuesday will be so interesting. It does not look to me like this thing will be settled for some time. That means that the texas primary (for once) will count for something.

After a lot of soul searching, I have decided to vote for Obama. I do this at great pain. Obama is barely a member of the baby boom generation and I hate for my group to give up the Presidency so fast. I was hoping that we'd be like the Civil War generation and hold onto the office for 32 years, or the WW II generation which managed to hold on for 40 years. We have had only 16 years of mirror image Presidents, one Democrtat and one Republican. The truth of the matter is that out act is pretty well worn out after only 16 years. It has been, like most of us, full of great promise and too little delivery. Clinton was actually impeached. Bush is going to end up in every historian's list of the bottom five Presidents of all time. He is certainly the worst since Hoover and, in my opinion had just as bad a record as Harding.

So why Obama ? It's just time for a fresh start. I think that a race with Hillary in it would be a rerun of the last four campaigns, the same close votes, the same tired issues, the same class warfare. The country needs to go in a new direction, perhaps even march in a new direction.It is a risk voting for Obama, he is probably not ready. But is anyone ever ready to be President ? It is more or less like the guys who ride bulls in the rodeo. You are never really ready, sometimes it's just your turn. Can Obama get nominated ? It is going to be very tough. The Clintons are master politicians and in any close race will get every break. It won't upset me if they win, I thinkj that Hillary is ready for, and certainly up to the job. I just don't particularly want to put the country through all that her campaign and election would entail. Whether it is their fault or not, the wounds of the Clintons and those caused by the Clintons never seem heal. I thiink that it is best to move on.

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