Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Taking Stock

My partner Allensworth, while not wise beyond his years (nobody could be wise beyond that many years) is, none the less a wise man. One I listen to. He generally speaks for the leading edge of the baby boomer generation, at least the articulate ones. As he often points out, when he gets an idea, about ten million others get the same idea more or less contemporaneously. His idea today was that he was heartily sick of the markets. Sick of playing the markets, watching the markets, fearing the markets and thinking about the markets. Just sick of it. So am I. The fact that the market went up 1,000 points yesterday and may go down again today is a fact that I have as much control over as I do the weather. I can get out of the market, like I can get out of the rain, but, in or out, it does no good to fixate on it. It really is time to turn to other things.

 

What I choose to turn to is my view, hardly unique, that the race for the Presidency is over. If I read the polls correctly, Obama support has hardened at about 50%, McCain’s at about 45%. These have been the average numbers for about the past three weeks. Short of Obama choosing to moon the American people on Wednesday night at the last debate (which I encourage you not to watch),or the Bradley effect truly existing, the last 5% will divide about 3 to 2 toward the Democrats giving Obama about 53% of the vote, and an easy victory with about 300 electoral votes. It is possible, given the economy, that I am way understating how the undecided’s will break and am understating how much the Democratic registration drive will pay off, and Obama may go over 54% and over 300 electoral votes for what will then be close to a landslide. If that happens, the Democrats will make good gains in Congress and will be firmly in control of 2 of the 3 branches for the next few years. I could play the scenario out even more with my view that the Republicans will do a great job of picking up the pieces by focusing on the Sam’s Club vote and Hockey Mom Palin will be in the White House in January of 2021. There, now you don’t have to focus on financial or political news until the roaring 20s. You can focus, as I intend to, on the sports page. Or, you can plan on which country you will choose to immigrate to after November of 2020 (stay away from Iceland).

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